V ponedeljek, 5. decembra 2016, je pri viš. pred. mag. Dubravki Celinšek v okviru predmetov Poslovna angleščina 2 in Business English 1 za dodiplomske študente Fakultete za management v Kopru gostoval strokovnjak iz prakse Primož Cencelj, višji upravljavec v družbi za upravljanje KD Skladi in dvakratni prejemnik naziva naj upravljavec premoženja. Zbrali smo nekaj vtisov in zapisov naših študentov.
Obiskal nas je eden od najboljših slovenskih upraviteljev premoženjskih oz. investicijskih skladov po izboru revije Moje finance Primož Cencelj. »Zmago mu je prinesel sklad KD Bond, s katerim je leta in leta krmaril po razburkanih evropskih obvezniških trgih.« (http://mojefinance.finance.si/8356591).
Gost je govoril o finančnih trgih, predvsem o ameriškem, saj nam je tako najlaže ponazoril, s čim se ukvarja in kaj nas čaka v prihodnosti, če bomo vztrajali pri svojem študiju. Po njegovem mnenju je zaposlitev na področju financ za nas, ki študiramo na Fakulteti za management, dobra izbira.
Ko je govoril o različnih dejavnikih, ki vplivajo na finančne trge, je omenil dve prelomnici v zadnjih mesecih: Brexit in izvolitev Donalda Trumpa za ameriškega predsednika. Na teh dveh primerih nam je lepo pokazal, s čim se finančni strokovnjaki ukvarjajo in kako lahko predvidijo, kaj se bo zgodilo s finančnim trgom, če bo prišlo do političnih sprememb, saj le najboljši finančniki lahko v pravem trenutku naredijo potezo, ki jim nato prinese velik dobiček. Seveda pa brez tveganja v tem poslu ne gre, saj se nam sploh v današnjih časih zdi, da je kupovanje delnic skoraj primerljivo z igranjem iger na srečo. Vendar pa je lahko tudi ta posel, kolikor je le mogoče, skrbno načrtovan, kar smo lahko skozi predavanje tudi spoznali. Gost je predstavil poglavitne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na finančne trge.
Moje mnenje o gostu je pozitivno, saj nam je nazorno prikazal svoje delo, želel pa bi, da bi bolj razpravljali tudi o stanju v Sloveniji in o slovenski politiki, saj je od te odvisno veliko število slovenskih podjetij.
Alan Apollonio in Dehar Durmiši
Všeč mi je bilo, da smo bili vključeni v razpravo. Poleg tega nam je gost poskušal pojasniti delovanje investicijskih skladov in borz na osnovi naših osebnih izkušenj iz vsakdanjega življenja. V razpravi smo situacijo lahko pojasnili iz lastne perspektive, saj nas je tako tudi predavatelj laže razumel.
The guest lecturer, Primož Cencelj, talked about the financial markets. Mr. Cencelj is a senior portfolio manager at KD Funds. He was awarded the title of the Best Portfolio Manager in Slovenia in 2013 and 2015.
He presented financial markets in Slovenia and his work in this area. The discussion started with the question: What were the major events that happened in the last 10 years and was followed by another question: Which events happend in 2016? We looked at both questions in a wider political context and from a personal point of view.
As the major events in the last 10 years, the lecturer mentioned the financial crisis of 2007/8, global QE (quantitative easing), shift from fossil fuels, signs of global balkanization, emerging market development and the new industrial revolution.
He told us about optimization in business processes, which is reflected in standardization. Therefore, the management has to take this step in every event. The next step is to educate the employees and managers how to optimize the business process, and they have to be assisted by external advisory organizations. Managers should find alternatives with the most cost effective or highest achievable performance under the given constraints, by maximizing desired factors and minimizing undesired ones. Maximization means trying to reach the highest or maximum results or outcome with no regard to cost or expense. The practice of optimization involves considering the information that is available to us.
At the end of the lesson some students asked him some questions. For me this lesson was important, interesting but a bit long.
His lecture was interesting, because he told us how he gained the knowledge that he has now. It’s also interesting that he could present the information about financial markets (referring to KD funds) »easily and fast«.
Vzajemni sklad je profesionalno upravljan investicijski sklad, ki od različnih investitorjev zbira denar za nakup vrednostnih papirjev.
Ob poslušanju predavanja smo se naučili, da lahko plačamo provizijo za upravljanje skladov in tako najamemo nekoga, ki se profesionalno ukvarja s skladi, ki kupuje in prodaja delnice, obveznice ipd. Vlaganje v sklade smo primerjali z vlaganjem v športne stave in igrami na srečo. Naučili smo se tudi, da v odprte sklade lahko vlaga vsak.
Zelo smo počaščeni, da nam je gost iz prakse Primož Cencelj predaval o za nas zelo zanimivi in pomembni temi.
His second question was “What were the major events in 2016?” Our response was more active (than to the first question: What happened in the last ten years?), and we listed US elections and Brexit as our top choices. Of course there were many other events that happened. The guest lecturer explained that not everything we hear in the news is true, and if we want to check some financial information, we should consult primary sources like the ECB, some statistics sites etc.
Moreover, he told us that the main function of financial markets is capital allocation, and that this is the reason they survive.
He warned us that if something looks too good to be true it is a fake.
During the first part of the lecture Mr. Cencelj told us about the wider context of financial markets and what affects them. According to the speaker, the most important factors that influence the economic situation are the changes in political situations, a shift from fossil fuel, growing nationalism, new industrial revolution and development of computer technologies in past 10 years. This time is the time of big and fast changes. Only in last year, many very important things happened which affected financial markets. For example Brexit, U.S. presidential elections and Austrian presidential elections, collapse of oil prices. One of the most important things for operating in financial markets is to have good, right and true information about the world situation. The best sources of information are primary sources.
The presenter pointed out that the main function of financial markets is the allocation of capital. There are various possibilities of investing: investing in real estate, comodities (gold, oil,…), bonds and shares (stock exchange).
He also talked about portfolio construction and optimization. For portfolio optimization, several steps are required. At first portfolio constructing is unsystematic and people use gut feeling and personal experience. The higher level of portfolio optimization is systematic. Mr. Cencelj also presented the future of portfolio optimization which will be done by using artificial intelligence. It will be systematic and flexible and it will use computer power and complex algorithms.
At the end of the lecture, there was a short discussion with students.
To summarize, Mr. Cencelj wanted to encourage us to read more about the world situation and think about this information critically and to be more interested in what is happening in the world. At the end I would like to say that Mr. Cencelj focused mainly on the “western world”. However, the »world power« has been moving towards the east. And the situation in the Middle East has influenced the whole world.
In the second part of the presentation, the lecturer defined the main function of financial markets, which is capital allocation. Then he showed us the way to value asset through using the bond price formulas. Afterwards he introduced the types of investments or the modes of investing: servicing coupon and principle payment, servicing coupon payment but not principle payment (speculative) and servicing neither coupon nor principle payment (the Ponzi scheme). If something looks too good to be true, then it probably is a fake.
In the third part, he talked about portfolio optimization and the three different ways this can be done. The first one is optimization 1.0, which is unsystematic and does not take into account correlations and other factors. Optimization 2.0 is based on mean variance, it is used since 1990 and it’s systematic. The ultimate optimization is 3.0 which includes higher momentums in optimization. The future of portfolio optimization lies in the version 4.0, which is systematic, flexible and based on reality.
The presentation was really interesting and I learnt a lot of new things. It was an honour for me to hear the story of such an experienced person who knows so much about the financial markets. He talked about the processes and things he personally knows and it made the lecture authentic.
I think the subject of the presentation is the basic knowledge for the 21st century, and because I come from a different field of education I gained new and useful knowledge.
The style of the lecture was interactive, I liked that he involved the listeners. Beside that he used examples from everyday life which made the understanding of this complex topic easier. He also combined the theoretical and practical parts of the topic which is a really effective way to teach something new. I also liked that he told us his personal story of how he became a successful person in his field.
Moreover, the presentation was useful because I made some notes so now I have the opportunity to learn more about this topic at home. So to sum up I think that these types of presentations from those who practise what students learn from theory are really interesting, useful and they help me to attain some basic knowledge for my future life.
KD Skladi so družba, ki deluje na podlagi tehnologije in umetne inteligence. Pred leti so se odločili za zelo obsežen projekt, ki so ga poimenovali KDAI. Njihovi strokovnjaki so vanj vložili vse svoje znanje, ki je zdaj pripravljeno za uporabo. Pri svojih projektih uporabljajo metodo Mean CVaR za optimizacijo portfelja, ki je standardno merilo tveganja in vključuje višje momente distribucije donosov ter tako bolje upošteva asimetrično naravo donosov ter ekstremne dogodke z majhnimi tveganji (http://live.editiondigital.com/e/16agvhfvq/optimum-6#!page7). Z uporabo tega pristopa laže nadzorujejo delovanje razmer na kapitalskih trgih, kar jim prinaša višje donose in znižano tveganje.
The guest was interested in our knowledge of the daily news and the ways of gathering information. His daily routine includes reading newspapers, which most of us do only occasionally.
What I really appreciated was the guest telling us how important our sources of information are. Not all news is actually news (reliable source) as fake news is being published as well.
My Opinion is that Mr Cencelj deserves all the awards and should be proud of his success … Investment management is the professional and systematic asset management of various securities and other assets in order to meet specified investmenz goals fort he benefit of investors (http://financeclob.info/why-asset-management-is-important/). And this is what our guest does.
We are all glad that we had the opportunity to meet him and that he shared his knowledge with us.
During the discussion-based presentation, we tried to answer (NOT: ON) three questions:
1. What were major events in the world in the last 10 years? The most important event was the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2010. In those years the biggest decrease was in 2009. Other events were: Global Quantitative easing (QE), Shift from fossil fuel, Emerging market development (for example China), Signs of global balkanization, New industrial revolution, and Political changes in Greece.
2. What were major events in the world in the past years? The most recent event was US Elections where the winner is Donald Trump. But also very important events were: BREXIT, Oil prices collapse (prices went down in January 2016), ECB QE extension, Italian referendum and Austrian presidential elections. Additionally, the Fed (Federal Reserve) and ECB December meeting, which will take place soon, is one of major events which affect the financial market.
3. What is your source of information?
Mr Cencelj gave us advice to use primary sources like sources from statistics offices or websites because that helps us avoid fake facts.
Our guest showed us formulas to calculate the most important value assets, which are equity, bonds, options and commodities futures. He also explained typical stages for servicing debt, which are: Investment: you can service coupon and principle payment; Speculative: you can only service coupon payment and not principle payment; Ponzi scheme: you can service neither coupon nor principle payment.
Than Mr Cencelj moved on to the next point on his agenda, which was “portfolio constructions”. He explained us four optimizations: Gut feeling and personal experience; Portfolio optimization based on mean-variance; Portfolio optimization based on Mean CVaR (since 2010); Future of portfolio optimization - artificial intelligence.
In the agenda’s point called “Market”, our guest explained graphs which showed price changes of gold and oil in the last few years. He compared price changes of those goods to the major events in the world. We could see that after US elections, prices went down but they recovered very fast.
In conclusion Mr Cencelj answered a few questions from the audience: How did he manage to rise to the position he now holds (in the senior management)? etc. He also gave us advice that we should gain work experience as soon as it is possible.
In my opinion the presentation was interesting and well prepared. Mr Primož Cencelj is a good authority for young students who study economy and management studies. He has a lot of experience and considerable knowledge, which he wishes TO share with others.
Alicja Aleksandra Ryżewska